Notes from tonights meeting

Just scatter shot of things mentioned in meeting

- how do we define good
- why do 1/3 of americans think america is a fundamentally evil nation
- the american revolution is the only revolution to not end in a tyranny
- culture is everything
- cultural changes, not chronology, is an alternative way to study history
- france's proximity to england and germany forced the top-down leadership to industrialize.
- france: catholic, etc. Top Down culture. Betrayal in verdun and the 1917 mutinies (walked to nomans land and shelled by their own artillery). french battalions at verdune were cycled to the front line, the germans funneled their troops in. so the germans who fought died, the french who fought and survived got out and told everyone else how fucked they were. 1930s france - communists versus facists. french saying "better the germans than the communists". 1940s - because their government had betrayed them the last time, they walked away when the germans attacked. 1950s - algeria and Battle of Dien Bien Phu. total loss of convidence in dien bien, and in algeria, they were successful in their fight against the algerian nationalists because of their torture their way up the command chain technique, but the French saw this in the newspapers etc. and did not want to see themselves as murderers, so they left. 1960s france gets liberal student-run entitlement gov. which brings us to present day bankruptcy.
- israel - army takes 48-72 hours to mobilize. some enemy officer realized they could use hoses to wash away their slowing dunes, so israel almost got owned. but the usa FLEW in hundreds of tanks through portugal and saved the day. israel is unsure whether the usa will provide utter support if anything happens again.
- Bush White House checked with rapture Christians before Israel move

- House of Medici, Lorenzo de' Medici
- There are no shovel-ready gov. projects, but we are throwing money at "fixing the economy" as if there were.

That's all i can remember for now, if anyone else has interesting stuff add it in the comments

also, for those who have not yet seen it, The Onion Money Pit

The Singularity: touchable holograms

http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns_asia/2009-09-16/163021253061.html

You've heard me discuss that I think the stories humans tell, particularly about ourselves, should be renamed from Literature to Narrative. I believe this better describes the three current basic modalities: live performance, film/video and novels. There are many intermediate forms, for example comic books and cartoons. I've become increasingly aware of a new, fourth modality: interactive video games. The newest Grand Theft Auto IV uses the "criminal immigrant" experience in America as its narrative theme. Rather like The Godfather with a joy stick.
So try and imagine what touchable holograms mean as a narrative tool. What other applications will it have? After you watch the video on holograms, review your understanding of how innovation occurs (here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704631504575531790397679612.html?KEYWORDS=innovation ) How do you prepare for this future?

An imaginative idea about taxation and the Federal budget

For many Americans, the amount they pay in taxes is larger than any purchase they make during the year, but studies show they know almost nothing about where that money goes to. This contributes to ridiculous beliefs, like the view that 20% of government spending goes to foreign aid, for example. An electorate unschooled in basic budget facts is a major obstacle to controlling the nation’s deficit, not to mention addressing a host of economic and social problems. We suggest that everyone who files a tax return receive a “taxpayer receipt.” This receipt would tell them to the penny what their taxes paid for based on the amount they paid in federal income taxes and FICA.


from this website: http://www.thirdway.org/publications/335

The Fed...here's one for Evan

"The Fed is making a big mistake by ignoring movements in the price of the dollar, movements in the price of gold, in favor of inflation-targeting, which is a bad idea. The Fed has always had the wrong view about the dollar exchange rate; they think the exchange rate doesn't matter. They don't say that publicly, but that is their view...(But currency volatility) just spoils the effect of any kind of free trade agreement." "
"What would be your winning formula today? What advice would you give to Washington that would help turn around our moribund economy?" (Mundell) pauses to think, but only for a moment. "Pro-growth tax policies, stable exchange rates...The most important initiative you could take to improve the world economy would be to stabilize the dollar-euro rate."

We all know that Evan aspires to be chairman of the Federal Reserve, or failing that, proconsul of a territory like Iraq. So here is a must read article for him. For those of us with a lower level of interest, note that Mundell, father of the Euro, sees fiat currency as a building block, made by gov't, by which others can trade more efficiently. He doesn't believe the Fed should think of itself as responsible for stimulating the economy, rather it provides the tools for others.

Cotton and Hayek

"Cotton prices touched their highest level since Reconstruction on Friday, as a string of bad harvests and demand from China spark worries of a global shortfall..."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704300604575554210569885910.html?KEYWORDS=cotton+prices

This is the first sentence in a fun article discussing the modern history of cotton prices. My eye was caught by the use of the word "shortfall". Consider this word in the context of James's re-posting the quote from Hayek on "price" as the essential piece of information in balancing supply and demand. It makes us see the word "shortfall" as poorly chosen in an economic sense. Rather, the authors should have used "decrease in supply", because we are not going to "run out" of cotton this year, that would require government intervention. Rather with a decrease in supply, we are going to see an increase in price, until demand decreases to match the supply. Now the article makes sense.

the Tea Party

Here is a worthy article by Berkowitz as follow-up to our meeting dicussing the Tea Party. Unfortunately, it lacks any data. Maybe there is none to be had.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748704631504575531913602803980-lMyQjAxMTAwMDEwNTExNDUyWj.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

Newest data on the rich

The IRS has released its latest data on individual income taxes, which you can view as an update on Chapter 9: The Rich, Fairness, and Politics in our textbook. You can view a summary of the data here: http://taxfoundation.org/research/show/250.html
There has been only marginal change from the previous year, with the top 1% ($380,000/yr) getting about 20% of the income and paying 38% of the taxes. Note that they pay about as much of the taxes as the bottom 95%. The top 5% ($160,000/yr) earn about 35% of income and pay about 60% of income taxes. To be in the top half of tax filers, you need to make more than $33,000/yr.
Remember that these numbers are by tax filing, and don't differentiate between single filer and joint filers (ie husband and wife). So married doctors could easily be in the top 1% 5 years out of residency with hundreds of thousands of school debt. Note also that this is taxable income. If you assume 25% net federal tax (this can vary a lot due to income mix), 5% state tax and 4% medicare/SS, then you could be in the top 1% and have a net annual income of about $250K/yr.
There is a close correlation between income and wealth. Wealth can be total net worth including house, or liquid assets only. To be in the top 1% of liquid net worth takes about $5 million. Net worth also correlates with age, so we see that high net worth individuals tend to be in their 50-60's. It's a pretty steep curve to make the ranks of these rich. You need six times the wealth to go from the 50th percentile to the 10th percentile and another six times that to get to the top one percentile. Here is a good reference. It's a little dated, but these trends move quite slowly.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/scottburns/alsoonline/wealth_scoreboard.html